Oracle's Hazy Future

Quiz time. What is the world's top-seller of business software? If you guessed Microsoft, you were wrong. The answer is Oracle, which in 2007 also had the world's best-paid chief executive. Co-founder Larry Ellison took home $193 million last year.

Ellison earned his reward by taking a huge risk that has paid off. He decided to transform Oracle from a company that mostly sold database programs to one that sells many different kinds of software used in all kinds of industries, from energy to insurance. In less than four years, Ellison has strung together a vast array of specialty software makers, buying 42 companies for upwards of $30 billion. His best-known quarry: PeopleSoft, Siebel Systems and, most recently, BEA Systems.

A former Oracle employee who's impressed with the growth strategy is Peter Goldmacher, who now follows the Redwood Shores, Calif., giant for investment bank Cowen and Co. Says Goldmacher: "People were very skeptical. Ellison bought up companies past their prime when no one else cared. Now, Oracle offers so much more to its customers."

Goldmacher says that Oracle's sum is greater than its parts because owning so many products allows it to save money on sales, marketing and distribution -- among the top cost centers in the software industry. "Oracle customers can now buy a larger variety of products, leading to significant profit margin expansion," he says.

Oracle's shopping spree has made it the top seller of databases used by computer networks and products that allow computers and software to interact. Ellison says he also wants Oracle to be the leader in its third main product category, "enterprise" software for the business world. Those are the vital applications that make businesses productive, including automatic billing and online security. Germany's SAP ( SAP) currently holds the top spot in that area.

How well Oracle -- and its stock -- perform in the future will depend on how well the company succeeds at stitching together its many moving parts. Oracle must integrate many kinds of different software so they can talk to each other. Oracle calls this massive undertaking "Fusion" and has already released multiple software applications as part of the project. Fusion has been described as an effort to cherry-pick the best features and ideas and stitch them together with a rewritten software code.
Shares of Oracle, which closed at $22.46 on June 6, are flat so far this year, putting them slightly ahead of both Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and the technology-rich Nasdaq Composite Index. The stock is about 50% below its all-time high, set in 2000.

Oracle sells for a premium to the overall stock market, but that doesn't mean the stock is overpriced. The stock trades at 17 times the $1.36 per share that analysts expect Oracle to earn in the four quarters that end next November. That compares with a price-earnings ratio of 15 for the S&P 500 (based on estimated 2008 profits) and estimated profit growth for Oracle of 14.5% a year over the next few years.

Oracle is due to report results for the fourth quarter and its full fiscal year, which ended May 31, on June 25. For the quarter, according to Thomson Financial, analysts expect the company to earn 44 cents a share on revenues of $6.85 billion. For the fiscal year, they see earnings of $1.27 per share on sales of $22.17 billion. The results should provide some indication of whether Oracle's business customers are cutting back on spending because of the weak economy. That is a risk for the stock.

Despite the flurry of purchases, Oracle's balance sheet is strong. As of its last financial report, Oracle held cash and securities worth $10.5 billion, while it carried long-term debt of $6.2 billion.

Analyst Goldmacher views Oracle as a steady, modest grower and he says he thinks the stock is a "relatively undervalued asset." Analyst Robert Becker of Argus Research is also bullish, noting in a recent report that Oracle's "strong, recurring revenue stream will help prosperity continue." His 12-month price target for the stock is $27.

Author: Amy Bickers, Associate Editor @ Kiplinger.com

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BMW ORACLE Win In Marseille

BMW ORACLE Racing came, saw and conquered on Marseille's Rade Sud, winning the City of Marseille Trophy Regatta, the second event of the 2008 Audi MedCup Circuit.
I came, I saw, I conquered – then I left. USA-17, the American boat of BMW ORACLE Racing owned by Larry ELLISON and skippered by three times America’s Cup winner Russell COUTTS (NZL), the current MedCup Circuit champion skipper, won on her first and only outing planned for the 2008 series. The brand new all white TP52 missed the opening regatta of the season three weeks ago in Alicante and will take no further part in the six-regatta international Audi MedCup Circuit as the BMW ORACLE race crew focus on their main goal, winning the 33rd America’s Cup.

The City of Marseille Trophy Regatta came to a premature end on Saturday afternoon with the famous Mistral wind still blowing strong. At more than 28 knots on the Rade Sud race area, racing was abandoned without anyone even leaving the Vieux Port of Marseille, and USA-17, the overnight leaders, ended their one and only regatta Audi MedCup Circuit with a win. Just behind them was the Swedish boat Artemis with BMW ORACLE Racing team-mates on the identical Reichel/Pugh-designed hull. Artemis was six points adrift of the lead after eight races including one 40-miles coastal race.

The partnership between the two boats USA-17 and Artemis– the new TP52 of the Torbjörn TORNQVIST’s (SWE) 2007 champions – has been a key part of the American boat’s success in Marseille, which was helmed through parts of most races by ELLISON himself. Although the new USA-17 was only launched on 21 May, the settings and tuning notes gathered from Artemis in Alicante earlier last month were be applied directly to USA-17 to get her up to speed quickly.

After a modest sixth and fifth on the opening day, USA-17 won three races to complement their two third places, a second and a fourth places, always looking quick and at home over a regatta where the wind speed never fell below 15 knots.

“Marseille has been an awesome race track, really interesting with plenty of breeze, but the good thing as well is that it has always been changing with the shifts, so there has never been a ‘must-have’ side of the course. It has been about playing the shifts all the time,” said USA-17’s helm and co-strategist James SPITHILL (AUS).
“We exceeded our expectations by a lot at this event. We are more than happy to win. I think obviously Reichel/Pugh designers did a good job giving us a nice design especially in the conditions we had. We had the boat moving along nicely. The team combined well, quickly, and we can still improve a lot more, but we did enough to get there in the end,” said COUTTS.

“I would love to do more on this Circuit. It is a great circuit. It is not that we don’t want to do more, but we have to focus on the multihull for the America’s Cup. That’s obvious, but there will be a time when we come back into this class and enjoy it again.”

“And it is great for Artemis, our team effectively finished first and second, which is good. We really have exceeded my expectations. I was seriously saying to the guys beforehand that a mid-fleet place would be a result for us, given we practiced for just one day!!!

“We were fortunate that nothing broke because it is a brand new boat, and that the sails fitted. We were able to sail the boat reasonably effectively, those three factors really combined to make our success.”

Jose CUSI’s (ESP) Bribón, steered by Dean BARKER (NZL) with double Olympic medallist Ross MACDONALD (CAN) on tactics, arrived in Marseille in second place in the Audi MedCup Circuit standings. Bribón leaves France’s third city with a seven point lead over Artemis, the boat that moved furthest up the rankings.

Over a challenging regatta where three boats were eliminated from racing due to damage inflicted from collisions at the first mark of Thursday’s coastal race from which two boats were subsequently disqualified, Bribón finished third overall in the regatta. In spite of many requests for redress and a reduced fleet size at the end of the week Bribón’s consistency continues to prevail.

“We are more satisfied with the result than the performance in reality,” said Ignacio TRIAY, Bribón’s project manager and trimmer, “We had been suffering a lot with the conditions of wind and waves because we could feel that the boat was not going as well as the boats leading here in France. We have been working hard all week trying to find the right settings for the rig and also improving the crew work on board. We were not good enough to win the event here and we feel that maybe we could do better with these conditions, but on the other hand we are really satisfied because the boats that were going well in light airs in Alicante, were not so good here and vice versa. The boats with problems in light airs have done well here in Marseille. So we have been consistent – never brilliant, but always there, which is why we are leading the Audi MedCup circuit.”

Marseille has offered fabulous race conditions to the 14 TP52’s that participated. Strong winds, bright sunshine and an unique setting are but a few of the components of the regatta’s success. The race course area is peppered with an array of challenging shifts and is always able to produce great tactical racing, while the coastal race to the south east to picturesque Cassis, was set against one of the most stunning, rocky backdrops in the Mediterranean. Marseille is a great venue for the Audi MedCup and it is the intention of the Audi MedCup organisers to return here next year.

Source: Audi MedCup - http://2008.medcup.org

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Where next for Oracle's Ellison?

Oracle Corp Chief Executive Officer Larry Ellison has spent $33.5 billion buying the software maker's way into markets for telecommunications, retail and financial-services programs.

To keep his promise to double sales to $50 billion by 2012, Ellison needs to find a target in another big-spending industry, says Sarah Friar, an analyst at Goldman, Sachs & Co, and the likely choice is healthcare.

"If you're chasing dollars, there's probably nothing bigger than healthcare," said Friar in San Francisco. "The software that healthcare companies use is archaic. That's a big opportunity for Oracle."

It's also not a new idea for Ellison. The 63-year-old architect of 40 takeovers since 2005 had considered the sector five years ago. Oracle's board reviewed a list of potential acquisitions that included Cerner Corp.

The healthcare software maker with programs for handling electronic medical records, accounting and billing now has a market value of $3.71 billion. While Oracle hasn't made a public bid for Cerner, it has already bought the two largest companies on the target list - PeopleSoft Inc and BEA Systems Inc. The board's April 2003 presentation was released during the federal antitrust lawsuit that tried to stop Oracle from buying PeopleSoft.

Deborah Hellinger, a spokeswoman for Redwood City, California-based Oracle, didn't respond to requests for comment.

In the United States alone, technology spending by heathcare companies will jump 16 percent to $50.2 billion by 2011, according to researcher Gartner Inc in Stamford, Connecticut. Hospitals and physicians' offices will account for almost two-thirds, based largely on a switch to electronic record keeping from paper. Insurance companies will make up the rest.

Analysts haven't published any recent reports about Oracle's plans for heathcare software. Friar first advised buying Oracle shares in April 2007, when the stock was 23 percent lower than today. She also recommended shares of Microsoft Corp ahead of the software maker's first and second-quarter earnings, correctly predicting increases in the stock.

"If Oracle made a large push into the healthcare space, it would be viewed very positively," said Daniel Niles, CEO of Neuberger Berman Technology Management in San Francisco. Neuberger Berman LLC, the parent company, added 7.96 million Oracle shares in the first quarter, bringing its holding to 36.3 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. "Health care is a growth industry, especially as more technology is used to tie medical data together."

Oracle was unchanged at $22.91 on Wednesday in NASDAQ Stock Market trading. The shares have advanced 1.5 percent this year.

Source: China Daily/Agencies

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