Despite Tech Slump, Oracle Hits Its Mark

Oracle's bread-and-butter database business is faring better in the recession than its business applications, which companies use to manage finance, HR, sales, and other functions. Sales of new applications licenses fell 15 percent, to $469 million, during the quarter. Oracle's database and application-connecting middleware license sales grew.

During the tech industry's last big slump, software and hardware Relevant Products/Services vendors were slow to cut costs as falling demand pummeled profits.

This time around, Oracle isn't taking chances. Oracle, the world's No. 2 software company, hit Wall Street's earnings target when it reported fiscal second-quarter results on Dec. 18, by aggressively cutting research and development, travel, and other costs as its customers curtail spending.

Amid a global economic slowdown that's sapped business demand for computers and software, Oracle widened operating margins in the quarter ended Nov. 30 to 46 percent, compared with 41.3 percent a year earlier. While the software maker missed Wall Street's estimates for total sales and new software bookings, its earnings of 34 percent a share, excluding certain items, met analysts' projections. Better still, Oracle issued a third-quarter earnings outlook roughly in line with Wall Street estimates.

Shares of Oracle gained 4 percent in extended trading, after closing Dec. 18 down 13 percent, or 0.8 percent, at 16.61. The shares have lost 2.4 percent in the past month, compared with a 4.7 percent gain for the Nasdaq Composite Index.
Wide Range of Products Helps

Oracle displayed a knack for slicing costs while offering customers a wide range of products that it's assembled through a slew of acquisitions the past four years, analysts said. "This company can hold the bottom line better than anyone," says Brent Thill, Citigroup's software research director, who rates Oracle's stock a buy.

Analysts said Oracle has cut expenses in sales and marketing, and overseas R&D, and reduced sales and back-office expenses from its January acquisition of BEA Systems. A wide breadth of products lets Oracle salespeople zero in on where customers are still spending. "It all goes back to the all-you-can-eat buffet at Oracle," Thill says. "You can pick one thing or everything, and they have something they can talk to a client about."

The appetite for cost-cutting is catching across tech. Dell beat Wall Street's profit forecasts in its third quarter, reported Nov. 20, by taking an ax to expenses, despite ringing up sales that were more than $1 billion short of expectations. Troubled computer maker Sun Microsystems in November said it plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs, or 18 percent of its staff. Tech firms including Adobe Systems and Western Digital have announced plans to shed workers as well.

Net Income Falls amid Sales Slowdown

"Within technology we're seeing revenue weakness but good profitability," says Andy Miedler, a senior technology analyst at Edward Jones, who has a buy rating on Oracle. "Companies are more aggressive with cost-cutting during this downturn due to the lessons they learned with cutting costs too slowly during the tech wreck last time."

Cost-cutting aside, sales still take a hit when customers slash information technology budgets. Oracle's net income fell 0.5 percent, to $1.27 billion, in the second quarter, and sales were up 5.5 percent, to $5.6 billion, vs. analysts' consensus estimate of $5.84 billion. New software license revenue, an indicator of future sales, was down 3 percent to $1.6 billion. The closely watched metric fell far short of Oracle's forecast three months ago, when it said new license revenues would rise 2 percent to 12 percent. The bookings are a key measure of Oracle's performance, since they often produce additional tech support Relevant Products/Services revenue.

"Customers are signing up for fewer multiyear, $100 million projects," said Chief Executive Larry Ellison during a conference call with analysts. "Fortunately we have a very broad portfolio." A strong dollar is also hurting Oracle's results, as overseas sales translate into fewer dollars on the company's books.

Applications Vulnerable to Downturn

Oracle's bread-and-butter database Relevant Products/Services business is faring better in the recession than its business applications, which companies use to manage finance, HR, sales, and other functions. Sales of new applications licenses fell 15 percent, to $469 million, during the quarter. Oracle's database and application-connecting middleware license sales grew nearly 4 percent, to $1.16 billion.

"The applications business is in tough shape," says Citigroup analyst Thill. Applications revenues are more vulnerable in a weak economy, as companies protect database and middleware projects that can yield business information to help them compete, Thill wrote in a Dec. 2 research note. Oracle is locked in an applications market-share battle with SAP, which in October cut its profitability outlook for the year.

Oracle also issued a downbeat forecast for its third quarter, which ends in February. Assuming today's exchange rates, Oracle said it expects to earn 31 percent to 33 percent per share, vs. Wall Street's expectation of 34 percent per share. Oracle co-President Safra Catz told analysts that the company is expecting a record low in the pace of deal closings for that period of the year.

Lots of Acquisition Candidates

Oracle has been posting bang-up results for the past few years, largely by spending more than $25 billion to buy more than 40 software companies since 2005. In addition to having more products to sell, Oracle can also sign up customers added through acquisitions for lucrative tech-support contracts.

In recent months, Oracle has hinted it may hold to that strategy. There are at least 50 publicly traded software companies with $300 million to $6 billion in annual sales that Oracle could potentially acquire, said Mark Murphy, an analyst at Piper Jaffray who rates Oracle a buy, in a Dec. 12 research note. In September, Ellison said Oracle might take advantage of depressed stock prices to buy up more software companies on the cheap.

Now, Ellison said prices have dropped so low that some companies may resist being bought. "Some companies have much more attractive valuations right now, but I'm not sure they'd be wildly enthusiastic about selling for cash [value]," he said on Dec. 18.

When markets rebound and an M&A freeze thaws, Oracle could nevertheless be poised to spring. "As we come out of this cycle, Oracle is extremely well positioned," says Israel Hernandez, a director at Barclays Capital, who has an overweight rating on Oracle's stock. "They're going to come out a much stronger company after the recession." Until then, Oracle and other tech firms may have to keep looking for costs to chop.

Author: Aaron Ricadela @ www.newsfactor.com

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The top advice from Oracle experts in 2008

Whether you have a question about Oracle errors, backups, upgrades or jobs, SearchOracle.com has an expert panel ready to help. This year our experts answered questions on all these topics and more - - here's a look back at some of our most popular expert questions and answers of 2008.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. What is the ORA-03113 error?
2. How to get history of modified data from Oracle databases
3. How DDL and DML commands work in Oracle
4. How to do a hot backup when Oracle Database is up
5. When should an Oracle database be reorganized?
6. Tips for how to size an Oracle server
7. When to use CHECK constraints in SQL
8. When to do a manual upgrade vs. export and import
9. What is the difference between a database engineer, architect and administrator?
10. How to archive and decommission a database

What is the ORA-03113 error?
Q: We have an Oracle 10g database and get the ORA-03113 error sporadically. This is a science application where we query time-series data from a vb.net application. We can query successfully all day with some parameters (location, variable identifier, and date range) but when the date range changes beyond a (arbitrary?) limit (e.g. 2003 to 2007 works every time, but 2002 to 2007 fails every time), this error appears. We get a similar error using Oracle's sqldeveloper, though the error message text is different. Where do we start looking for answers?

A: ORA-3113 errors mean that your network connection to the database was severed. In my experience, there are two problem areas. One, something in the network failed between the client and the database. Two, a bug in the database caused the session to be terminated and the client thinks a network error was the cause. If you are sure your network is fine, then it is probably a bug. Make sure you have the 10.2.0.3 patchset installed. After that, file a Service Request with Oracle Support. Only they will be able to help you with the ORA-3113 error.


What is the ORA-03113 error?
Q: How can you get the history of data modified from an Oracle database?

A: There are a few options at your disposal. After the fact, you can mine your archived redo logs using Oracle's Log Miner utility. Before the fact, you can set up auditing to record changes...


How DDL and DML commands work in Oracle
Q: What happens in the background when we execute DDL or DML commands?

A: First, Oracle parses the statement and ensures that the statement is syntactically correct and semantically correct. Next, Oracle verifies that the user has permissions to perform the statement. If the user can execute the statement, Oracle obtains all locks necessary for the statement to complete. Once the locks have all been obtained, Oracle executes the statement. In some cases, results are returned. If results are returned from the statement, Oracle fetches those results and places the result set in an area called a 'cursor'. The cursor is passed back to the application.


Hot backup when Oracle Database is up
Q: What is the procedure for doing a hot backup when the database is up?

A: There are two ways. The preferred way with Oracle's databases today is to use RMAN. The following will perform a hot backup using RMAN.
Read expert Brian Peasland's recommended steps for using RMAN and learn more about RMAN and hot backups.

When should an Oracle database be reorganized?
Q: When should a database be reorganized?

A: Never. A well-designed database should never need reorganization. It used to be that a DBA would perform a weekly or monthly reorg to help database performance. But today's Oracle databases do not need regularly scheduled reorgs to perform well. Bad design can throw this theory out the window though.

Tips for how to size an Oracle server
Q: Do you have any suggestions on where I can find the following information, with recommended server hardware specifications for how to size an Oracle server? I'll be using storage area network (SAN) storage.
Number of processors
Quantity of RAM

I've searched the Oracle site and even though there are a number of white papers, I haven't seen anything like the old 9i sizing guide.

A: I have not seen any sites or other pieces of information that would give you the information that you seek. And I would be leery of the information presented. The amount of memory, processors, and other system resources are not dictated by the total volume of data in the database.

CHECK constraints
Q: How can I create a constraint to not allow a date prior to 1 Jan 2007 to be entered?

A: This is accomplished with a CHECK constraint. Here's an example:
create table documents
( id integer not null primary key
, title varchar(99) not null
, added date not null
, constraint only_new_ones
check ( added>= '2007-01-01' )
);

Manual upgrade vs. export and import
I am ready to upgrade. My database size is 200gb and it is an unsupported version of Oracle to upgrade to 10g(8.1.6.2 to 10g). It's O/S is on HP-UX, so could you tell me whether the best process for upgrade is to follow the manual upgrade process or by using the export & import to the new Oracle Database? If I follow the manual method then I have to apply the 8i to 8i Patches then to 10g . If I follow exp/imp then I need more down time. Which process should I follow?

A: If you perform the manual upgrade process, then you will have to be at least at Oracle 8.1.7 before you can begin. So to go from 8.1.6.2 to 10g, you will need two upgrades with this path. If you use export/import, then you will only need one upgrade. On average, each manual upgrade will take about 1 hour, but this time can vary. So without knowing more about your environment, the manual upgrade process will require about 2 hours of downtime. Using export/import for a 200GB database will probably take longer. So the big question to answer here is how much downtime can you take for the upgrade? If you had a larger downtime window, then you might use exp/imp for the upgrade. The exp/imp method also lets you perform some reorganization like moving objects to new tablespaces.

What is the difference between a database engineer, architect and administrator?
Q: Could you please explain the differences between a database engineer, a database architect and a database administrator?

A: Great question! It can get pretty confusing as these titles (and many more including database developer, data architect, data analyst, data modeler, database designer, etc.) are often intermixed, used improperly, or redefined by the companies using them. The definition really depends on the actual job descriptions as defined by the various companies posting them. I will do my best, however, to differentiate and simplify them for you...

How to archive and decommission a database
Q: What would be the best way to archive and decommission a 5GB Oracle 7.3 Database? This data needs to be available for at least 20 years from now in case a regulatory agency requires it, and we are afraid that in the future we won't be able to recover it to a newer version of Oracle.

A: I use Oracle's export utility for this type of task. Your database isn't too large, so exp will work. The nice thing about exp is that future versions of Oracle will still be able to read the resulting dump file. So perform the following:
exp userid=system/manager file=my_db.dmp log=my_db.log full=y

The resulting files can then be written to DVD or some other media for long term storage.

Source: Shayna Garlick @ searchoracle.techtarget.com

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Oracle Likely to Bend to Recessionary Winds

Oracle's boom time is not likely to continue as the U.S. recession deepens. The business software giant may not be ready to put jobs on the chopping block, but it will probably curtail expenses sharply.

Business software maker Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) is scheduled to report its fiscal second-quarter results after the stock market closes Thursday.

The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.

Overview: Oracle has been on a roll for several years as it snapped up dozens of its smaller rivals, but the Redwood Shores-based company will be hard pressed to keep the momentum going as more corporate customers curtail their spending on technology to weather the recession.

Analysts already have lowered their fiscal second-quarter estimates to below the target set by Oracle's management three months ago and are bracing for a cautious outlook for the rest of the fiscal year ending in May.

The big question now is whether Oracle will rein in its expenses to help offset the anticipated weakness in its sales. Many other technology companies already have drawn up plans to prune their payrolls, so it won't be a shock if Oracle trims its payroll of about 85,000 employees worldwide.

Most analysts, though, seem to think Oracle will start off by curbing travel expenses and other discretionary items before resorting to its first mass layoffs since the dot-com bust of 2001 shriveled its software sales.

Oracle eliminated about 2,300 jobs between May 2001 and May 2003, representing a 5 percent reduction from a much smaller work force at that time. If Oracle were to impose layoffs on a similar scale in this recession, it would translate into about 4,300 fewer jobs.

As usual, investors are likely to focus on Oracle's sales of new software licenses -- a key benchmark because those deals uncork a stream of future revenue from product maintenance and upgrades.

Back in September, Oracle forecast its new software sales during the second quarter would rise by 2 percent to 12 percent. Some analysts think Oracle may have landed a large software deal that may have helped the company fall within that range, but management isn't expected to be as optimistic in its forecast for the current quarter ending in February

By the Numbers: Analysts, on average, expect Oracle to report earnings of 34 US cents per share on revenue of $5.86 billion. The earnings estimates exclude expenses for employee stock compensation and acquisitions. Oracle's management projected adjusted earnings of 35 cents or 36 cents per share.

Analyst Take: Even though analysts have already lowered their forecasts, Brad Reback of Oppenehimer & Co. is advising investors to be prepared for a letdown when the results and third-quarter outlook are released.

"It is difficult to envision a scenario where the company's ability to close deals in late November was not negatively impacted" by the deepening recession, Reback wrote in a recent note to clients.

Stronger Dollar Doesn't Help
As if the economy isn't challenging enough, the strengthening dollar also is taking a toll on Oracle's international sales. Noting that the dollar has gained 12 percent against the euro since mid-September, analyst David Hilal of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. thinks Oracle will lose about $300 million more in revenue from adverse currency fluctuations than management anticipated in September.

Both Reback and Hilal expect Oracle to cut its costs to cope with the downturn.

Reback believes Oracle has enough wiggle room to lower its annual expenses by about $700 million without resorting to layoffs. This assumption is based on projected fiscal 2009 expenses of nearly $14 billion, or about $160,000 per employee. Oracle's expenses have averaged about $153,000 per employee during the past 12 years, Reback said.

What's Ahead: Oracle Chief Executive Larry Ellison has indicated that he may try to take advantage of the recession's fallout to buy even more rivals at bargain prices. The company already has spent more than $35 billion on takeovers completed during the past four years.

Stock Performance: Oracle shares dropped by 27 percent during its fiscal second quarter and are down by about the same amount for the year.

Source: www.ecommercetimes.com

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